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Markdown edition

# Menlo: Kimi leads US open-model spending

> Chinese models lead estimated spending.

By BIGCHANGE.AI Editorial

Published: 2026-11-08T23:13:37.880Z
Updated: 2026-11-08T23:13:37.880Z
Canonical: https://bigchange.ai/blog/menlo-us-open-model-spending-kimi

![Conceptual illustration of an analyst considering computing costs beside server cabinets](https://bigchange.ai/api/media/file/menlo-computing-spend.png)
AI-generated conceptual illustration; not an actual transaction, data center or financial result.

In estimated US enterprise production API spending on open models, Chinese-developed models account for 89%, including Kimi’s 61%, according to [Menlo Ventures’ November 3 report](https://menlovc.com/perspective/2026-the-state-of-enterprise-ai/).

## The big change

- From September 2025 to September 2026, open models rose from 11% to 19% of all model tokens.
- Their share of model spending fell from 6% to 4% over that period.
- Buyers must assess price, token mix and deployment costs, not just usage volume.

## Why volume and spending diverge

A token is a unit of model input or output. More tokens do not necessarily produce a proportionate bill: prices and the mixture of requests differ. Menlo estimates average open-model token prices fell 3.3-fold; that does not guarantee savings.

[Fireworks](https://fireworks.ai/pricing), a Menlo portfolio company, publishes separate serverless rates for fresh input, cached input and output, and offers reserved capacity. A buyer’s bill depends on the model, usage and arrangement.

Open weights can be run on a buyer’s infrastructure, subject to the license and deployment requirements. Moonshot publishes [Kimi K2.5](https://huggingface.co/moonshotai/Kimi-K2.5) weights under a modified MIT license. Running weights still requires computing and operational resources.

## What the estimate can show

Nearly 400 US enterprise AI decision-makers overseeing over $4 billion were surveyed September 8–26. Menlo weighted reported production workload shares by spending and modeled token economics using public disclosures and third-party data. API spending excludes a comprehensive accounting of self-hosting costs.

Menlo invests in AI businesses including Anthropic, Fireworks and OpenRouter. Those ties are context, not proof of error.

## Sources

- [Menlo 2026 enterprise AI report](https://menlovc.com/perspective/2026-the-state-of-enterprise-ai/) — Survey, spending estimates and methodology.
- [Fireworks pricing](https://fireworks.ai/pricing) — Provider pricing structure and options.
- [Kimi K2.5 model card](https://huggingface.co/moonshotai/Kimi-K2.5) — Model weights and license.