Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report 30.6% year-over-year earnings growth for the third quarter, according to an October 9 LSEG I/B/E/S dashboard. Technology companies are forecast to grow earnings 66.5%. At that snapshot, just 19 of the index's 500 companies had reported results, so the headline growth rate remained mostly an estimate.
The big change
- What changed: LSEG's October 9 snapshot puts blended third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth at 30.6%, led by a 66.5% estimate for technology.
- Why it matters: Reuters reported that LSEG attributed about two-thirds of expected index growth to technology and AI-heavyweights Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. The estimate concentrates the season's expected gains in a narrow part of the market.
- What to watch: As companies report, compare actual results with estimates and see whether the growth extends beyond technology and semiconductor makers. The snapshot does not show that AI caused the projected gains.
The scorecard is mostly forward-looking
LSEG's dashboard is built from I/B/E/S historical earnings and analyst estimates. It labels the 30.6% figure “blended,” combining reported results with estimates for companies that had not yet reported. The dashboard's scorecard lists 19 companies as reported out of 500, or 3.8% of the index. It reports that 84.2% of those 19 beat earnings estimates, while 10.5% fell short. Those percentages describe the early reporters, not the index as a whole.
The gap between that small sample and the blended total matters. At the October 9 cutoff, the reported-only index result was not a settled picture of the quarter. The 30.6% figure depended on analyst forecasts for most companies and could change as earnings arrived and estimates were revised.
Technology stands apart in the forecast
The LSEG dashboard shows 66.5% blended earnings growth for technology. Communication services, a separate S&P 500 sector that includes companies such as Alphabet and Meta, was at 47.8%. Energy was at 123%, but from a different earnings base and amid a separate set of market conditions. These are sector growth rates, not estimates of each sector's share of total dollar growth.
Reuters, citing LSEG earnings research head Tajinder Dhillon, reported that about two-thirds of the expected index increase came from technology and the AI-heavyweights Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Reuters also reported an estimated 136% year-over-year rise for US semiconductor-company earnings, down from an estimated 158% in the second quarter. That figure is a forecast, not a reported result, and the report does not establish that AI demand alone explains it.
The sector numbers and Reuters attribution describe concentration from different angles. A sector growth rate compares earnings with the year-earlier quarter. A contribution to index growth depends on the size of companies' earnings in both periods, so a fast-growing smaller base does not necessarily contribute more dollars than a slower-growing large one. Reuters' two-thirds estimate is an attribution; the headline dashboard alone does not provide enough detail to independently reproduce that calculation.
Growth still depends on execution
The estimate leaves open whether companies will convert AI spending into durable profits. Reuters reported that strategists were watching the high expectations built around continued capital spending, and that estimate revisions had begun to cool. Upcoming reports can show revenue tied to AI services and infrastructure, the costs of building capacity, and whether expected demand appears in results.
Valuation also matters. A strong earnings forecast alone cannot show whether share prices already reflect that growth or whether returns will follow. This is a report on analyst expectations and their concentration.
For readers outside markets, the useful signal is narrower: the earnings season opens with an unusually uneven forecast. The eventual reports will show whether that projected strength is realized and how much comes from the companies most closely associated with AI investment.
